Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 105.628490 120.743668 137.740302 158.361297 182.826122 211.076020 246.384188
2026-01-11 87.027750 106.583113 130.508219 162.274481 203.858971 257.168679 331.868664
2026-01-18 74.458212 95.947943 123.951637 163.801859 220.190598 298.914080 420.424983
2026-01-25 65.108982 87.324001 117.761025 163.581466 232.748188 336.590506 511.090248
2026-02-01 57.118839 79.106042 110.478496 159.948084 238.788190 364.769524 592.937716
2026-02-08 50.781831 72.267893 104.005541 156.100888 243.188113 390.353522 675.876336
2026-02-15 45.740076 66.659318 98.516245 152.713109 247.314769 415.623403 764.011201
2026-02-22 44.098347 65.974948 100.436865 161.473948 273.402072 484.807825 957.430882
2026-03-01 41.269230 63.072293 98.382148 163.039966 286.621059 532.273626 1119.741283
2026-03-08 38.905481 60.654689 96.804462 165.127060 301.016357 584.959454 1311.264063
2026-03-15 36.465474 57.857064 94.240811 164.980373 310.844945 629.952256 1499.492512
2026-03-22 35.636836 57.702758 96.252992 173.741897 340.535015 726.268342 1862.956234
2026-03-29 34.465581 56.912324 97.162410 180.757165 368.552549 827.997671 2296.736024
2026-04-05 33.173764 55.785459 97.327917 186.306622 394.525952 932.568304 2798.094214
2026-04-12 31.582716 53.959743 95.955287 188.390498 412.753508 1022.103243 3301.366974
2026-04-19 29.894439 51.800184 93.698780 188.209715 425.365392 1099.744026 3809.761711
2026-04-26 27.945309 48.983423 89.853444 183.930303 426.632748 1144.109395 4211.476180
2026-05-03 26.152934 46.331243 86.099663 179.384696 426.396270 1184.077649 4623.786760
2026-05-10 24.575116 43.980004 82.755545 175.381256 426.935077 1227.067677 5084.772017
2026-05-17 24.391434 44.376395 85.219762 185.745631 470.477409 1433.298834 6585.041536
2026-05-24 23.492224 43.254235 84.309403 187.600480 489.450334 1558.478243 7761.744260
2026-05-31 22.703576 42.298285 83.672482 190.073333 510.959699 1702.463593 9231.178228
2026-06-07 21.772865 40.978354 82.103607 189.899514 524.103849 1818.421362 10658.434418